25 July 2006


Lots of speculation, now, on Israel's invasion of Lebanon. Ashraf Isma'il has a piece out on Why Israel Is Losing, and Sharat Lin details the chronology of events. The conclusions are amusing, too. Ismail:
And it is precisely because America and Israel are losing influence over global events, that an American attack upon Iran in 2007 becomes more likely.
How cheery. Now Lin:
It is time that the U.S. government see that unconditional support for Israel’s current reckless course will neither lead to peace nor stability in the Middle East.
What the US government sees is what every government sees: office politics. The question is not "what" as in what will the inner circles of the US government see or do, but rather "who" as in who will have the most influence within these inner circles. My guess is that the major force militating for peace will have to be the Saudis. They certainly have a good relationship inside the White House.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are out there in the field, competing for AIPAC's affection. Certainly the Republicans, too, will demand a tightening of the AIPAC collar sometime between now and November. Which side is going to win the office pool? Stay tuned.


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